*Originally published August 29th 2026 https://conalldiggin.substack.com/p/oregons-year-my-2026-college-football
The 2026 college football season is finally here, which means it’s time to make some predictions that will look either very smart or very stupid by December.
There are plenty of obvious contenders, but I’m more interested in the teams and players who could surprise us, disappoint us or come out of nowhere to make a run at the biggest prizes in college football.
Who will be a surprise team?
Louisville
With so much coaching upheaval and quarterback movement this offseason, there were plenty of options for this pick, but none that really spoke to me straight away.
In the end, though, I’ve settled on Louisville.
This is a high-powered offence in a conference with one clear contender and a whole host of teams fighting for the second spot. The Cardinals have been knocking on the door for the past few years, but never more so than last season, when they entered their final three conference games with just one loss and were in the driver’s seat for a potential ACC Championship Game appearance.
Then they blew it.
Losses to Clemson and Cal were followed by a 38-14 drubbing at the hands of SMU to close out conference play, turning what looked like a promising season into another case of what might have been.
My optimism in the Cardinals starts with Jeff Brohm, who I genuinely think would have landed a “bigger” job by now if he weren’t a Louisville alum.
The offence he has built is a really fun group. Transfer quarterback Lincoln Kienholz was in a quarterback battle with Julian Sayin at Ohio State last season and should represent an upgrade on Miller Moss. Behind him, Louisville might have the second-best one-two punch at running back in college football, with Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown both capable of changing a game.
The offensive line should be solid, while the receiving corps should take another step forward following the addition of Tre Richardson.
The defence is undoubtedly the weakness, and Louisville enters the season with a new defensive coordinator. But pass rushers Clev Lubin and AJ Green should cause plenty of problems for opposing quarterbacks, and there is enough talent elsewhere to keep the unit above water.
The key game comes in Week 3 against SMU. Both teams look like contenders for that second-place spot in the ACC, and whoever wins could put themselves firmly in the driver’s seat for a potential playoff berth.
Last season, I picked Auburn in this spot. Given Louisville’s schedule, coaching and offensive firepower, I’m feeling considerably better about this one.
Who will underperform?
Texas Tech
Is it a bit reactionary? Sure.
Did Texas Tech find success last year without elite quarterback play? Yes.
But the feeling around this programme has shifted enough that I can’t see the Red Raiders replicating the highs of last season.
The biggest talking point is obviously quarterback.
Texas Tech landed one of the top transfer quarterbacks in Brandon Sorsby, only for it to later emerge that he had been betting on games while at Indiana. Following a drawn-out legal battle, Sorsby will not play for the Red Raiders this season.
That leaves last year’s backup Will Hammond as the likely starter, although former Florida State quarterback and Tennessee Titans wide receiver Tommy Castellanos could also enter the picture.
The whole situation has created a level of uncertainty around the programme that I don’t love. Joey McGuire proved me wrong last year and has clearly established himself as a very good coach, but I worry that this is the year when Texas Tech finally comes back down to earth.
The other concern is the defence.
Losing David Bailey, Romello Height and Jacob Rodriguez is a huge blow to a unit that was one of the best in the country last season. Texas Tech has reloaded well, with Adam Trick, Trey White and Mateen Ibirogba helping to replace the production up front, while one of my favourite players, Kansas State transfer Austin Romaine, should help fill the enormous hole left by Rodriguez.
The Red Raiders also return the majority of their secondary, so I don’t expect the defence to suddenly become bad. A top-20 unit is still very much within reach.
In fact, player for player, this roster might even be better than last year’s. They kept their excellent running backs, improved at wide receiver and still have plenty of talent on defence.
That’s what makes this prediction so uncomfortable.
I don’t think Texas Tech is a bad team. I think the quarterback situation, the loss of key defensive stars and the difficulty of reproducing last year’s production could combine to keep them out of the conference championship and the playoff.
Sometimes the team that disappoints isn’t the team that gets worse. It’s the team that simply can’t recreate everything that went right the year before.
Who will win the Heisman?
Darian Mensah
The past four Heisman Trophy winners were all first-year transfers at their new schools, so I’m sticking with the trend and taking Miami transfer quarterback Darian Mensah.
He already looks like an upgrade on last year’s starter, Carson Beck, and the situation around him is about as favourable as you could ask for.
Miami should have an elite offensive line. They return star running back Mark Fletcher Jr. They have one of the best receivers in college football in Malachi Toney, and they also brought Mensah’s favourite target, Cooper Barkate, over from Duke.
Most importantly, Miami has already shown it can win at the highest level.
The Hurricanes got over the hump last season and reached the national championship game, while they enter 2026 as overwhelming favourites in the ACC.
Mensah also has the perfect stage for a Heisman moment when Miami takes on Notre Dame.
Everything is set up for him: the supporting cast, the schedule, the programme and the opportunity.
Now he just has to deliver.
Which Group of 5 team will make the playoffs?
Last season was the first, and potentially the only, time we will see more than one Group of 5 conference champion make the playoff.
The rule changes have made the path considerably more complicated. Notre Dame will get in as long as they finish in the top 12, while the guaranteed places for the champions of the Power 4 conferences leave considerably less room for a G5 team to sneak into the field.
That makes the race fascinating.
Last season also showed just how difficult it is to predict. Eight of the last 11 highest-ranked G5 teams in the preseason poll failed to be the highest-ranked G5 team at the end of the regular season.
Now, with the Pac-12 back, the power dynamics have shifted again.
The conference has added Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Texas State and Utah State, joining the remnants of Oregon State and Washington State. That has created a new power centre among what are now effectively the G6 conferences, with Mountain West teams in particular fancying their chances of making the playoff.
The teams I’ve pencilled in as genuine contenders are Boise State, New Mexico and Memphis.
Boise State
At Boise State, Spencer Danielson has built a G6 powerhouse, going 24-8 during his first three seasons as head coach.
The Broncos return plenty of important talent, including quarterback Maddux Madsen, who started their playoff game in 2024. Running back Dylan Riley is the best back in the conference, while the biggest positive might be the return of most of the offensive line.
The secondary gave up too many big plays last season, but an improvement there, combined with a really strong defensive line featuring Jayden Virgin Morgan, Max Stege and, most importantly to me, Dublin’s own Lopez Sanusi, gives Boise State plenty to work with.
In the new-look Pac-12, the Broncos should be the favourites.
Memphis
This is me going all-in on Charles Huff.
He proved me right last season by turning Southern Miss into a bowl team after some terrible seasons, having already won the Sun Belt with Marshall in 2024. Now he has one of the biggest jobs in the G6 at Memphis.
The roster is almost unrecognisable from last season, with more than 50 transfers arriving this offseason.
Two of those transfers came at quarterback, where Division II star Marcus Stokes beat out former Ohio State and South Carolina quarterback Air Noland for the starting job.
Even with a completely new-look defence, Huff has brought over some key pieces from Southern Miss in J’Mond Tapp, Agmere Forster and Ian Foster. That should provide at least some continuity in a team that has otherwise undergone a massive rebuild.
This year might be too early for a genuine playoff run, but the American Conference should be fascinating regardless. Navy, USF and UTSA all have legitimate ambitions, and Memphis will be right in the middle of that fight.
My pick: New Mexico
I’m going with New Mexico.
I really think this team has it all.
They return plenty of starters from the past few seasons, including at quarterback, and they have one of the best linebackers in the country in Jaxston Eck.
His father, head coach Jason Eck, did a fantastic job in his first season, guiding New Mexico to nine wins. If he follows that up with another successful campaign, he could become one of the most sought-after coaches in next year’s coaching cycle.
For me, continuity is the key.
That’s especially important in the G6, where roster turnover can completely change a team’s fortunes from one year to the next. New Mexico has a stable core, a proven coach and a star defender in Eck.
The Mountain West is wide open, but UNLV looks like the biggest obstacle, with that late-season matchup potentially deciding the conference race.
I think big things are on the horizon in Albuquerque.
And if everything breaks right, New Mexico could become the G6’s playoff representative.
Who wins each conference?
MAC
Toledo over Miami (OH)
C-USA
Western Kentucky over Delaware
Sun Belt
Old Dominion over Arkansas State
Mountain West
New Mexico over Hawaii
Pac-12
Boise State over Fresno State
American
Memphis over Navy
Big 12
BYU over Texas Tech
ACCMiami over Louisville
Big Ten
Oregon over Ohio State
SEC
Texas over Georgia
Who makes the playoffs?
In no particular order:
- Notre Dame
- Indiana
- Miami
- Texas
- Ohio State
- Oregon
- Georgia
- Louisville
- BYU
- Alabama
- LSU
- New Mexico
Who wins it all?
Oregon
I’ve said it many a time, but Dan Lanning is a great coach.
Oregon lost both of its offensive and defensive coordinators this offseason, but I genuinely believe the Ducks have enough talent and, more importantly, enough culture under Lanning to overcome those departures.
The biggest reason for my optimism is Dante Moore, who has the talent to develop into the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.
Then there’s the running game. Jordan Davidson had such a strong season that he kept one of last year’s biggest transfers, Mahki Hughes, out of the backfield. That’s an absurd level of depth at running back.
Dakorien Moore’s outstanding true freshman season was only outshone by Malachi Toney’s incredible campaign, and Oregon has enough weapons around its quarterback to make life very difficult for opposing defences.
The defensive front is loaded too, with Washington, Alexander, Uiagalelei and Tuioti all returning. I’m particularly interested in seeing what Koi Perich can do in the Dillon Thieneman role as a ball-hawking free safety.
And don’t forget about the corners, Brandon Finney Jr. and Aaron Flowers.
The biggest question mark is the offensive line, particularly at tackle, where Oregon has more than a few changes to make. But I think the upside of this roster is simply too high.
Lanning has built Oregon into one of the deepest and most talented teams in the country. They’ve already come close to getting over the hump.
This is the year I think they finally do it.
Oregon are my 2026 national champions